Thrivent’s 2026 Retirement Expectations Survey, conducted in partnership with Ipsos, uncovers a nuanced picture of American confidence in retirement timing, the growing anxiety around artificial‑intelligence‑induced job disruption, and the cascading effects on digital payments, open‑banking and embedded‑finance strategies.
The latest release of Thrivent’s annual retirement outlook surveyed more than 2,000 U.S. adults across four generations. While 58 % of non‑retirees still believe they will have enough money to retire on schedule—a figure that has held steady since 2025—nearly half (47 %) express doubt that they will ever fully retire. The gap between confidence and skepticism is widening as AI, rising living costs and geopolitical uncertainty reshape financial expectations.
“Retirement planning doesn’t require having all the answers,” said Thrivent Financial Advisor Jason Rogoff. “It requires a plan that can adapt as circumstances change.” That sentiment resonates with a broader fintech narrative: platforms that blend data analytics, open‑banking APIs, and embedded finance are increasingly tasked with delivering flexible, real‑time advice rather than static, long‑term projections.
AI’s Uneven Impact on Generations
The survey highlights a generational divide in perceived AI risk. Gen Z (63 %) and Millennials (59 %) are more likely than Gen X and Boomers (both 49 %) to anticipate a negative impact on retirement from AI‑enhanced career‑transition tools. Even among retirees, 29 % report that AI‑related shifts have already eroded their retirement security, up from 20 % a year earlier.
For fintech firms, these numbers signal a market for AI‑enhanced career‑transition tools and income‑smoothing products. Companies such as Plaid and Tink are already extending their open‑banking suites to incorporate labor‑market data, enabling lenders to adjust credit lines as users shift between gig and salaried work.
Current‑Finances Over Future Planning
A striking 64 % of respondents admit they are more focused on today’s financial pressures than on retirement planning, while 35 % feel they are lagging behind peers. High living costs (53 %) and insufficient savings (47 %) dominate the narrative. This behavior mirrors a Forrester forecast that 55 % of consumers will prioritize short‑term liquidity solutions—like cash‑advance APIs and instant‑settlement services—over traditional retirement accounts by 2027.
Fintech platforms that embed budgeting widgets directly into payment flows (e.g., Stripe Treasury, Square’s Cash App) stand to capture this attention shift. By surfacing retirement‑savings nudges at the point of transaction, they transform everyday spending into incremental wealth‑building actions.
Macro Pressures on Retirees
Retirees are feeling the squeeze from macro‑economic forces. Inflation now affects 70 % of this cohort, political instability 61 %, and global economic conditions 54 %—all up from 2025. Gartner predicts that by 2028, 70 % of financial institutions will have integrated real‑time inflation‑adjusted portfolio rebalancing into their digital wealth‑management suites, underscoring the urgency for adaptable tech stacks.
Redefining Retirement as a Phase, Not an End‑Point
Nearly half of non‑retirees doubt they will ever “fully retire,” and 36 % expect to earn supplemental income after exiting their primary career. The erosion of the “inheritance safety net” adds another layer: 37 % of those feeling behind cite the lack of an expected inheritance as a key factor.
Embedded‑finance providers are responding by offering “career‑stage” APIs that let employers and platforms dynamically allocate a portion of payroll into retirement buckets, even for part‑time or contract workers. This approach aligns with IDC’s projection that embedded financial services will grow at a 23 % CAGR through 2030, driven largely by the need to support non‑linear career paths.
Rogoff’s Three‑Step Playbook for Enterprises
- Stay Flexible and Adjust as Conditions Change – Continuous monitoring of market variables—interest rates, inflation, AI‑related labor trends—should be baked into product roadmaps. Fintechs that expose these signals via open APIs enable downstream partners (e.g., payroll processors, HR SaaS) to automate plan adjustments.
- Set Realistic Goals and Start Early – Early‑stage contributions compound dramatically. The survey notes that 60 % of those feeling ahead attribute their advantage to starting savings early. Platforms that gamify early‑stage investing (think Acorns or Stash) can capture this demographic early, creating lifetime value.
- Work With a Financial Advisor – Even as AI democratizes data, human advisors remain critical for risk‑tolerance calibration. Hybrid models—AI‑driven risk profiling paired with human oversight—are emerging as the industry standard, a trend echoed in a recent McKinsey analysis that predicts a 30 % productivity uplift for advisory firms that adopt such hybrids.
Implications for Enterprise Marketing Teams
For B2B marketers, the survey underscores three actionable insights:
- Enterprise Marketing content that frames retirement as a flexible, multi‑phase journey resonates more than traditional “save‑once‑and‑retire” narratives.
- Data‑driven personalization—leveraging AI‑derived labor‑market forecasts—can improve campaign relevance for Gen Z and Millennial segments.
- Partnerships with embedded‑finance platforms enable marketers to embed financial wellness experiences directly into SaaS products, turning a compliance requirement into a differentiator.
Market Landscape
The retirement‑planning ecosystem is at a crossroads where traditional actuarial models intersect with real‑time data streams. Open‑banking standards (e.g., UK’s Open Banking, US’s Consumer Data Right) are unlocking granular cash‑flow visibility, allowing fintechs to overlay AI‑generated risk scores on individual retirement trajectories. Meanwhile, embedded finance—particularly “pay‑as‑you‑go” retirement contributions embedded in payroll and gig‑platform payouts—offers a scalable solution to the 64 % of consumers prioritizing immediate cash flow.
Competitive solutions range from established wealth‑tech firms like Betterment, which now offers AI‑guided “Life‑Stage” portfolios, to challenger platforms such as Human Interest that specialize in employer‑sponsored retirement for the gig economy. Thrivent’s survey data provides a benchmark for these players to calibrate product messaging and feature roadmaps.
Top Insights
- AI‑induced job risk is highest among Gen Z and Millennials, prompting demand for adaptive, income‑smoothing fintech solutions.
- 64 % of adults prioritize current financial pressures, driving growth in embedded budgeting tools within payment flows.
- Inflation, political instability and global economic uncertainty now affect over half of retirees, accelerating the rollout of real‑time portfolio rebalancing APIs.
- Nearly half of non‑retirees doubt full retirement is attainable, highlighting a market for multi‑phase, career‑stage financial products.
- Early‑stage savings compound significantly; platforms that gamify or automate early contributions capture long‑term user value.
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